According to the words of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, assassination of a political leader Hamas Yahya Sinwara said on Wednesday (October 16th) that "Hamas will no longer rule Gaza."
In his view, Sinwar's death marks the beginning of a post-Hamas period.
However, observers see a different future for the Iran-backed paramilitary Hamas, which the US, the EU and a number of countries designate as a terrorist organization. writes DW.
"The killing of Sinwar is certainly a blow to Hamas given the important role he played within the organization," said Neil Quilliam, a fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at London-based Chatham House.
Still, Quilliam emphasizes that the policy of eliminating leaders in the past has not weakened Hamas' will and ability to fight Israel. That's how Sinwar took power after the assassination of the previous political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, in Tehran this July.
"Hamas will recover by relying on a new generation of leaders, redeveloping military and technological capability and attracting young Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank who have been brutalized by the conflict with Israel," Quilliam told DW.
This opinion is shared by Peter Lintl, a researcher from the German Foundation for Science and Policy. "Hamas is certainly weakened, but Sinwar's death is not the final blow to the paramilitary," he told DW.
"Missed opportunity"
Meanwhile, German, French and American officials have expressed hope that Sinwar's death could provide an opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Removing the Hamas leader from the scene "presents an opportunity to find a way forward that will bring the hostages home, end the war and see us to the day after," US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.
But on Friday, just a day after confirming Sinwar's death, Hamas announced it would hold the hostages until the end of the Gaza war.
Over 7 people have been killed in Gaza in the past thirteen months of the Gaza war, which began with a Hamas attack on Israel on October 2023, 42.000, according to the Hamas-controlled health authorities there. Of the approximately 250 hostages taken by Hamas fighters to Gaza, around a hundred are believed to be still alive in captivity.
Still, Mohammed al-Qawas of the Emirati Political Center sees Sinwar's death as the potential start of a "new chapter" in the Gaza war.
"When the responsibility for negotiating a cease-fire is transferred to Hamas leaders abroad, those negotiations will be subject to external calculations because all those leaders are influenced by the capitals in which they are located, and perhaps it is through those capitals that Hamas can make concessions and launch a new politics," Al Kawas told DW.
Hamas's political leadership is based in Qatar, but Sinwar, a hardliner from Gaza, was a key figure in the US, Qatar and Egypt-led truce talks with Israel after Haniya's assassination.
Israel is not (for now) seeking peace
However, uncertainty does not exist only on the side of Hamas. German expert Lintl believes that, despite Sinwar's death, there is little reason to hope that Israel may now be ready to end the war.
Despite hailing Sinwar's death as the end of Hamas on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made clear that the war would not end until the remaining Hamas leaders - such as the brother of the slain leader Mohammed Sinwar - were eliminated and all hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza they don't return.
For James M. Dorsey, an expert on the region and senior fellow at the Singapore School of International Studies, this approach represents a missed opportunity.
"Instead of using Israel's tactical success to declare victory in Gaza, move toward a cease-fire in Lebanon, which could advance negotiations for a prisoner exchange that would secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas, Prime Minister Netanyahu insisted that the war would last until the Israeli military release the hostages," he wrote in his latest post on the Turbulent World political blog.
When Sinwar's death was announced on Thursday, Lebanon's Hezbollah announced a "new and escalating phase" and "more every day" in the war with Israel. The representatives of that paramilitary group claim that for the first time they used precision-guided missiles to attack Israel.
