Germany the political scene is in a state of emergency ahead of state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday (6 September).
The last three polls see the right wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) to 40 to 43 percent of the vote in this province in the east of the country. If the dice roll, such a result may be enough for an absolute majority, given that all other parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD.
If that happens, Ulrich Sigmund (35) would become the first provincial prime minister with the AfD party card and the first post-war "to the right" of the conservative Christian Democrats.
Census mathematics
According to the same polls, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats, who are currently in power in the province, can count on 22 to 23 percent. Their smaller partners in power, the Social Democrats, with only 7 to 9 percent.
The Left (11-13%) will certainly enter the provincial parliament, while the Greens (5-6%) are teetering on the edge of the census, and maybe the Sara Wagenknecht Alliance (3-4%). The distribution of mandates will depend on the results of the small ones.
Another question is whether the Christian Democrats, in the event that mathematics allows it, will swallow the frog they have imposed on themselves and still cooperate with the Left. Until now, the party's doctrine was not to cooperate with either the "extreme" left or the right.
Tumbling in the announcement
In case of victory, Sigismund announced a serious overthrow of the province, where it has jurisdiction. The AfD's main theme is opposition to migration and the announcement of deportations.
Part of the party is flirting with the idea of "remigration", which right-wing ideologues define as the revocation of citizenship and the expulsion of all who are not "real" Germans. Others claim that it is only a fight against "illegal migration".
Although Saxony-Anhalt has only about two million inhabitants, it is believed that it could be a signpost for further development.
AfD strongest in the entire country
Two weeks later, the states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the capital Berlin will vote, but the AfD has no chance of taking absolute power there.
The state branch of the party in Saxony-Anhalt and elsewhere is officially classified as "extremist", which means it can be targeted by the Office for the Protection of Constitutional Order. The entire party is currently being treated as a case under suspicion.
There are more and more voices demanding the initiation of the procedure to ban the party. Although the procedure is initiated politically - through the Government or Parliament - the Constitutional Court has to say the final word, and that would take time.
Lawyers warn that the German Constitution sets high barriers to banning parties, and others that the AfD is too big to be banned.
Although significantly stronger in the east of Germany, the AfD has been leading in federal polls for months. It is currently at 27 to 29 percent support.
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