Serbia is facing elections although no one knows yet when they will be announced. Basically, it will be a confrontation between Vučić and student list. Everything that inspires hope to the former leads to despair in others. And vice versa.
Vučić's offer to the voters is well known: the continuation of systemic corruption, the strengthening of broken institutions, the strengthening of regime repression, the blackmailing of entire sections of the population, the burying of the remnants of the welfare state, the recidivist raising of tensions in the region and, by no means the last, the continuation of the shielding of the cult of personality. The head of the state and the entire Ćaciland is similar to Mask and other absurdly rich characters. Just as they never have enough billions, he is also insatiable for power and authority.
Students stand for diametrically opposite goals. And these are the rule of law, liberation of institutions, solidarity, inclusion, free development of personal and social potential, life without fear, pressure, blackmail... Asking them for something more - especially concrete ideological determinations - is paving the road to hell, easy prey for autocratic predators like Vučić. In order to get back on track, Serbia needs to be reset. Only when this is done, political and public life can take on real meaning.
The above belongs to the general place, and the commentator belongs to its mayor. However, this is precisely the essence of the crossroads before which the people and the state find themselves.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU THINK
In the last month alone, Serbia has been rocked by several scandals that would have brought down the government in any orderly country, not to mention the flurry of resignations of relevant ministers. This is not the case here. How can it be when the ministers do not answer to the voters, but exclusively to the president of the state. And since they have to ask him about everything - he is also responsible for everything. This is also the reason why he always protects and "does not give" to his associates, no matter what is at stake.
This clientelistic and loyalist model worked for years. However, after the fall of the canopy, it was quite worn out. Vučić himself is aware of this problem. That's why he tried with all his weight to normalize the abnormal. Everything is fine, he claims, the police are professional and work according to the law, the majority of the thugs who do not think the same as the students are persecuted, the state administration is functional, education has been put in order and it will be, healthcare is great and fabulous, Serbia is respected everywhere... According to Vučić, there are no corruption scandals, the merger of the regime and the mafia, the collapse of the judiciary, the country's backsliding in European integration and anything else, these are the incitements of the "blockaders", the "Ustasha" and "Destroyer of Serbia".
He hardly personally believes in any of what he says. It is only about promoting the progressive electorate, which assures them every day that he personally gives them pensions, employs them, gives them memberships, builds and paves roads...
Propaganda is one thing, reality is another. A large number of citizens also feel that something is deeply rotten and evil in the state of Serbia. Because of this, Vučić can no longer rule without confirmation of legitimacy in the ballot boxes. This forced him to bid for some time by resigning, announcing election dates and a permanent undeclared official campaign.
Those hard hitting efforts in front of the cameras have two goals. The first is to cause quarrels and divisions within political opponents according to the recipe he successfully used to fry the opposition for years. Another goal is to avoid admitting that in 2025 he lost the battle for society. Vučić is now handling it by claiming that today's situation is different from the one a year ago, as if he didn't claim at the time that he defeated the "colored revolution".
GREAT COMBINATOR
What will the upcoming elections look like? There are two and a half models in the game.
Vučić can avoid parliamentary elections until their regular holding if he replaces Đura Macuta at the head of the government. This would imply a reconstruction, a drastic reduction to maybe a dozen ministries and represent a kind of war cabinet based on supposed efficiency. At the moment, Vučić says that it never crosses his mind to become prime minister without an election. After Toma Nikolić's first mandate in 2017, he claimed in similar words that he would not be a candidate for the president of Serbia...
However - it is not the same, this time Vučić has a reason for consistency. The real problem of the semi-model with sitting back in the prime minister's chair without an election is that he would thus implicitly admit the collapse of the government with a comfortable majority in the assembly, and bring additional unrest, lack of self-confidence and factional disputes to the SNS.
The first model is holding separate presidential and parliamentary elections. Everything is in order there. It is clear that Vučić does not have any worthy candidate for his successor. Whoever accepts that role, will look like a person without legal and active capacity who has to ask a fly-eyed guardian for every little thing. Elections are not won that way. And especially since on the other side will be a person who will not be elected by the citizens as a political leader, but a representative of students and rebellious societies, whose main task is to return the office of the President of the Republic to the constitutional and legal framework.
Defeat in the presidential elections - there is every chance - would be fatal for the progressives if it comes before the vote for deputies. But what if Vučić calls parliamentary elections beforehand?
At best, on its own, it can win an anorexic and unstable majority, far smaller than today's. Despite boasting of a magnificent victory, his mandate would essentially be reduced to trade and compromises with minority and coalition parties. Roughly, something similar to the local assemblies of Niš, Arandjelovac or Kula, where the SNS struggles from session to session with a patchy majority. In this situation - with Vučić significantly weakened - the defeat of the progressives in the subsequent presidential elections is almost certain. Simply, once the coronation of authoritarian power begins, it is impossible to stop it.
Finally, the third model. It is about combining the parliamentary and presidential elections. The calculation is simple: the candidate for president of Serbia from a progressive perspective is not of greater importance, since Vučić would take over both campaigns. In this context, maybe he will bring a successor to the Presidency building on his shoulders... But these are mere hopes. There is no longer a winning model for Vučić.
THE DAY AFTER
During the fourteen years in power, the progressives perverted every election in their organization - from those for local communities to presidential and parliamentary elections. Neither of them were fair and honest - and that's putting it mildly.
A large number of SNS supporters know this, aware of pressure, blackmail, bribery, violence, vote buying, voter migration, abuse of the judiciary and state administration (see text on page 6), and all other electoral malpractices.
How far did the Soviets manage to get into this electorate and sway it? It is difficult to estimate. However, it is quite certain that with their protests, marches and dedication, they won over a huge part of the famously quiet and silent majority. And she is the key pillar of every order, including Vučić's.
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