In order to adequately project the fiscal sustainability of the system, the Fiscal Council coordinated the preparation of the study "Projections of the population of Serbia in the period from 2010 to 2060". The study draws on the most recent data from the 2011 census to quantify expected demographic aging and depopulation trends in the coming decades. Projections from this study will enable, in accordance with the requirements of the European Commission and the EU Stability and Growth Pact, long-term fiscal projections in Serbia to take into account the effects of population aging on the sustainability of public finances. accessible to the public, was done by demographer Goran Penev, expert advisor at the Center for Demographic Research of the Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade. Goran Penev received his master's degree at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Belgrade in 1987 with the thesis: Basic determinants, characteristics and consequences of the aging population of Yugoslavia. The area of his research is demographic projections, population aging, population development. Here are excerpts from that study.
The results of the projections point to a high degree of certainty that Serbia, even in the next fifty years (until 2060), will remain an area of negative natural growth. Namely, starting from the inherited structure of the population by age and sex, the realization of assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality and migration balance would have as a direct consequence a continuously higher number of deaths than the number of live births, i.e. constant negative natural growth and that in the case of the realization of any projection variant.
If there are differences, they concern exclusively the projected volume of negative natural growth, that is, the value of the rate of natural growth, as well as the direction of changes. If only the last five-year projection sub-period (2055-2060) is observed, then, according to the results of the projections, the largest negative natural increase would be reached in the case of the realization of the constant variant, both in absolute amount (-300,8 thousand or -60,2 thousands per year), as well as in terms of the rate per 1000 inhabitants (-14,9 per 1000 inhabitants per year).
As expected, the smallest negative difference between the number of live births and deaths would be if the variant of high fertility was realized. According to this variant, in the five-year period 2055-2060. the negative natural increase would be reduced to 6,5 thousand inhabitants (from, for example, 34,9 thousand in 2010), while the average annual rate would amount to "only" -1,0 per 1000 inhabitants.
The fact that even a sudden increase in fertility, as assumed by that projection variant, could not eliminate the "deficit" of births in 50 years, very illustratively indicates the long-term demographic consequences of the very unfavorable current and, even more, future age structure of the population of Serbia.
Total population of Serbia, 2010-2060 (by projection variants)
(= 2010 100)
| variant
| 2010
| 2020
| 2030
| 2040
| 2050
| 2060
| Growth index |
| 1. Low fertility
| 7292940
| 6735064
| 6112337
| 5554745
| 5128969
| 4715413
| 64,7 |
| 2. Medium fertility
| 7292940
| 6839485
| 6379056
| 5978815
| 5761378
| 5584458
| 76,6 |
| 3. High fertility
| 7292940
| 6920387
| 6586398
| 6314755
| 6289309
| 6344006
| 87,0 |
| 4. Constant fertility
| 7292940
| 6763570
| 6183758
| 5667387
| 5288260
| 4927169
| 67,6 |
| 5. Constant mortality
| 7292940
| 6683757
| 5944645
| 5285935
| 4795215
| 4388287
| 60,2 |
| 6. Zero migration. balances
| 7292940
| 6828339
| 6296960
| 5786596
| 5351901
| 4907452
| 67,3 |
| 7. Constant
| 7292940
| 6728037
| 6032776
| 5283507
| 4564443
| 3864183
| 53,0 |
| 8. Prognostic
| 7292940
| 6723658
| 6091628
| 5566405
| 5216083
| 4906723
| 67,3 |
Also in the Photo Gallery: Table showing natural increase, birth rate, mortality rate, migration balance
The current age structure, deep-rooted low reproductive norms of the population, age model of mortality, and socio-economic circumstances that encourage emigration from the country are only some of the more important factors that will have a decisive effect on the demographic development of Serbia in the next half century. The results of the analyzed population projections indicate that in the foreseeable future it is difficult to expect an improvement in the demographic situation, which will be marked by a decrease in the population and its very intense
aging.
Source:
Population projections of Serbia from 2010 to 2060, Goran Penev
