Dark clouds are hanging over Serbia regarding energy supply for the coming winter. Western countries are trying in every way to "punish" Russia for the attack on Ukraine, and now it's the turn of what was unthinkable in February. We are talking about oil sanctions, which are being announced in Brussels with great difficulty, and the "seventh package", which would include gas supply, is already being loudly mentioned.
All this exacerbates the issue of Serbia's energy security. Without significant quantities of domestic oil and natural gas, we are doomed to import them. At the same time, the situation with oil is conditionally much more favorable. The refinery in Pancevo can use oil from Iraq and not only Russian oil, so a possible embargo introduced by Brussels would not have serious consequences. Admittedly, in the case of an embargo on Russian oil, it is realistic to expect price growth on the markets, which will inevitably affect fuel prices in Serbia.
When it comes to gas, Serbia simply has no choice: we can be supplied with gas either from Bulgaria via the so-called "Turkish Stream" with Russian gas or a gas pipeline from Hungary. The trouble is that neither Hungary nor Bulgaria can, in the event of a complete interruption of the supply of Russian gas, secure quantities of gas from other sources, not even for their own needs, let alone for Serbia.
These days, various energy "experts" appear in public and "explain" that there are alternatives for everything, even for the eventual lack of gas. So even a certain Miodrag Kapor said on Newsmax Adria news that there is always an alternative, that is, that citizens can, if necessary, lodge and parquet!
There are also tragic examples when this was done: the siege of Sarajevo 3 decades ago and even more terrible, the siege of Leningrad in 41-44.
But is it an alternative? Of course not - it's a humanitarian disaster.
In theory, Serbia can replace fuel oil with gas in a large number of heating plants, and citizens who use individual gas connections probably have alternative sources of heating. However, the grim truth must also be told: due to logistical problems, it will not be possible to provide huge amounts of fuel oil instead of heating gas for heating plants in cities.
That is why it is tragic that "experts" mention that there are alternatives for everything, when there is none for natural gas, nor will there be in the next two years at least. And even then, when the gas terminal in Alexandropoulos and the Nis-Sofia interconnector are operational, there will hardly be enough gas for us. In the gas pipeline from Azerbaijan, which could be used when the Greece-Bulgaria and Bulgaria-Serbia interconnectors are completed, there is also no "excess free gas" for Serbia.
We do not think that it is good for Serbia that it does not have an alternative for Russian gas, but neither do much more powerful countries such as Germany and Austria. And it is certain that the alternative is not what Kapor proposes, i.e. parquet heating...
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