Post-pandemic stress

Three years ago at this time, we all "discovered" Zoom. Locked as it is, it was often the only way for us for business communication, meetings, presentations, proof that we have become so digitized that not even a pandemic can stop us. Zoom wasn't the only app that was widely used, but it was the most popular. It has become a symbol of resistance, so to speak. The company's shares skyrocketed, digital meetings were declared the "new normal".

Three years later, Zoom announced that it was laying off 15 percent of its employees, or 1300 people. They cite the unpredictability of the global economy as the reason. They are not the only ones, most IT companies in the world, including in Serbia, have been seriously cutting the number of employees since the beginning of this year. It's mostly a single-digit percentage, but in the case of Google and Microsoft, it's big numbers, ten to fifteen thousand people. Which means that a large number of people lost their jobs all over the world, among them many programmers and developers. So, a highly specialized worker, not an operator whose job will soon be taken over by chat bots anyway.

There are several explanations for this phenomenon, it must be said, not quite expected. The IT industry had a dramatic jump during the pandemic, there was a massive demand for people because the market demanded more and more. Many retrained or finally decided to move into that world, salaries were generous, plans unlimited. If the pandemic brought a "digital tsunami", then it is logical that at some point that wave recedes and leaves behind a not so pretty image of the global economy. Which was then further damaged by the Ukrainian fire, a disaster with great potential. As a result it became clear that most of the forecasts from the time of the pandemic were exaggerated, people have pretty much returned to their old habits and now the question is where the digital industry will stabilize.

It will certainly be at a much higher level than before the pandemic, but not at the dream heights for which many were preparing by hiring everyone who is willing to sit at a computer. This now creates a new problem, for the first time we are faced with the possibility that there will be unemployed people in the IT market, and quite a lot, which inevitably leads to a drop in the price of labor. In the foreseeable future, job security will come before salary, and this could benefit the "old industry", which is also crying out for digital experts, but could not afford them. The best went to start-ups or successful companies for big money, that is, they were prone to quick job changes in accordance with the conditions offered to them.

Last week, the global IT sector experienced perhaps a more severe blow than this post-pandemic one - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went bankrupt, which could lead to the blocking of money for a large number of IT companies and startups, since the state guarantees up to $250.000, which is nothing. Many will have a problem paying (high) salaries or covering running costs. Which could result in new layoffs or, worse, the shutdown of potentially successful projects.

The reasons for bankruptcy have little to do with the IT industry. In the simplest terms, the bank invested in bonds that lost value when the government raised interest rates. The bank tried to get rid of that ballast, which caused nervousness among clients who rushed to increase their stakes, which no bank would withstand. We will now go through a live stress test of the IT industry worldwide, as this shock has begun to shake all markets.

Despite everything, there is no question of some kind of collapse, or even a crisis of the IT sector, unless the global crisis is dramatic. Things just fall into place, the IT world ceases to be Disneyland and will begin to resemble the "old industry" with all its good and bad sides, especially in terms of wages and employment. The new normal, so to speak.