It cannot be determined from which moment the dictatorship will begin to fall apart, which event will trigger an avalanche that cannot be stopped, which, once it starts, follows a certain logic. An increase in violence, for example. It is impressive to what extent no dictatorship in the history of mankind has refrained from violence, including Vučić's.
Let's recall the last years of Milošević's regime: first he released Vučić, Šešelj and Nikolić on the citizens, and then, after the intervention of NATO (and the declared victory), together with his wife, Dacić, Vulin himself devoted himself to violence. We saw murders, beatings, broken heads, the closing of the few free media (we remember that the coaxial cable completely destroyed B 92), buses that spontaneously take SPS members across the country, speeches of the government devoid of connection with reality. And then the police refused to obey and the dictatorship collapsed.
And now the same. Maddened by impotence and fear, the dictatorship of Aleksandar Vučić increases violence every day and, at the same time, maintains increasingly weak links with reality. That is why the question arises every now and then whether the regime, if the citizens' protests stop, will have the strength to fight back, to carry out, as the Supreme Being would say, a successful counter-revolution (although there was no revolution, nor will there be one)? In other words, to start terror, like the one in Georgia, or Belarus? Fall logic says it won't. Not because he doesn't want to, but because he doesn't have the strength.
Robbery mechanism
First, Vučić lacks geography: Belarus and Georgia border Russia. Serbia is surrounded by NATO countries. Second, his desire grows from the asphalt. If anyone missed the spectacle, let us remind you: in the village of Vitanovac near Kraljevo, plants sprouted from four-month-old asphalt. Asphalt was laid by SNS (and who else?). Now, how come? Well, easy. If six centimeters of crushed stone are needed for a normal road, SNS places three and takes three for itself. If the asphalt layer should be six centimeters, SNS lays three and takes three for itself. And then the desire sprouts.
They did the same in Novi Sad, only more serious money was involved there: instead of the original 5 million euros for the reconstruction of the railway station, SNS calculated that it all cost 16 million, so the suspicion that he kept eleven million for himself is very well founded. And then the canopy fell and killed sixteen people.
This is not about comparing a country road and the horrors in Novi Sad - that is impossible and inappropriate - but about the demonstration of a mechanism that is the same in every segment of the country controlled by the SNS: open robbery that leaves desires and death behind. And nothing more.
Precisely because the question is when, and not whether, a tragedy like the one in Novi Sad will happen again, this regime does not have the strength to take revenge with the strength that regimes based on Putin's Russia have.
We should not forget "Ribnikar", which followed the logic of the dictatorship, nor the murders around Mladenovac, the day after the horror in "Ribnikar", also as a consequence of the dictatorship. Or Bor. Or Rio Tinto. Or the poison that Belgraders inhale. Or the lack of water in Zrenjanin. Or somnambulant lies and abominations uttered by people who are no longer able to distinguish appearance from reality and who, in all likelihood, have tired of even the most persistent.
Resistance to being dragged to the losing ground
He destroyed the regime and the police, on which he relies with all his strength. Perhaps the police, to a certain extent, would participate in the attempt to seduce terror, but the police is far from the unity that terror requires. It is hardly necessary to talk about the army, which is as humiliated as those unfortunate people that the Falange is driving around Serbia.
In addition, the prosecutors are gnashing their teeth louder and louder because they have not been doing their job for 12 years. Zagorka Dolovac missed the last chance to get out somehow, and the terror, without strong and loyal prosecutors - not to mention judges - is impossible to carry out.
The Phalanx of the SNS also collapsed, placed between Vucic's hammer (he pretends that he sacrificed the light and middle class of robbers who, he boasted, he installed himself, like the one who roasted piglets and then destroyed the EPS) and the citizens' anvil.
Finally, although by no means in the last place, would the citizens of Serbia meekly watch as the regime drags them to the bottom of the heap? Well, after these five months - and we should not forget that this is only the strongest wave of civil protests in the last few years - it is difficult to count on meekness.
