Crude oil prices world stock markets have jumped 11 percent over the past seven days since the latest conflict between them began Israel and Iran. Concerns are growing over potential global oil supply disruptions.
When it comes to Serbia, the government determines the maximum fuel price on a weekly basis. Until last Friday, it was slightly cheaper compared to this week, and according to the new decision, in the next seven days, gasoline will cost two dinars more, and a liter of diesel will cost three dinars more than this week.
The Government of Serbia has announced new weekly maximum prices for oil derivatives, so until Friday, June 27, gasoline will cost 181 dinars, and Eurodiesel 192 dinars.
Does it have anything to do with the conflict between Israel and Iran?
What affects the price of fuel?
As before Tomislav Mićović, Secretary General of the Association of Oil Companies of Serbia, explained to Vreme, the new conflict should not lead to a sudden increase in the price of fuel in retail in Serbia, because the increase in fuel prices at the pumps is not only influenced by the price of crude oil, but also by a number of other factors.
"Between the crude oil market, there is also the oil derivatives market, which is affected by several parameters, not only the price of crude oil, such as the seasonal quotations of gasoline and diesel," Mićović explained.
Considering that the vacation and travel season has begun, a slight increase in the price of fuel is expected due to increased demand.
For several years now, the Government of Serbia has been regulating the maximum price of oil and oil derivatives through decrees and publishing them on a weekly basis. Excise duties on petroleum products are, however, among the highest in Europe.
Impact of the war in the Middle East
How have oil prices changed since the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran on June 13?
Although oil prices spiked immediately after the first shocks, a slight drop followed, but prices remained volatile throughout the week with daily ups and downs.
As of June 19, a barrel of crude oil on world exchanges cost around $77,3. The day before the start of the new conflict, on June 12, a barrel of oil cost around $69.
As tensions rise and world leaders decide on next steps on the war, concerns are also growing about whether oil prices could reach levels seen in 2022 after the start of the war in Ukraine, when a barrel briefly cost more than US$XNUMX.
However, experts believe that there is no fear that this could happen.
Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil market analyst, told Anadolu Agency that despite increased geopolitical tensions, there is still a sufficient supply of crude oil on the global market.
"If this conflict had happened 10 years ago, we would have seen oil prices reach $100. That's not happening now because market participants know there's a lot of oil that's not from the Middle East or not from OPEC," he said.
In a social media post last Friday, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol said "markets are well supplied," while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said there were "no developments in supply or market dynamics that would require unnecessary measures."
The Strait of Hormuz
Although there has not yet been a drop in supply, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest concern for global oil supplies. The narrow waterway (31 kilometers wide) at the mouth of the Persian Gulf transports almost 15 million barrels of crude oil a day, which is about one-third of the global seaborne oil trade.
If it were to close, prices could skyrocket.
As Mićović previously explained to "Vreme", we should not expect the closure of this waterway, as this would also prevent the export of Iranian oil.
