The consequences of the conflict in the Middle East could be felt in the reservoirs of the citizens of Serbia. While the prices of crude oil and gas are jumping around the world, will more expensive fuel reach the pumps? Serbia is already at the very top in the region in terms of fuel prices
Of how much will war in the Middle East in the East, whether it will end relatively quickly or extend for several months, will depend on the fate of millions of people in the world. The conflict will also affect their wallets, and the attack on the tanks will reach Serbia the fastest.
Oil prices have been growing since the expected attack by the US and Israel on Iran. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, jumped 6,2 percent to trade at around $77 a barrel, after briefly crossing $82 earlier in the trading session. Saudi oil company Aramco suspended operations at its largest refinery, Ras Tanura, on Monday (March 2) following a drone attack, in an incident that sent panic on global stock markets and sent diesel prices soaring by more than 20 percent.
During that time, Serbia is already selling diesel for 200 dinars per liter, which, next to Albania, is the highest price in the region. When it comes to the price of gasoline, which on pumps it costs a maximum of 181 dinars per liter, Albania, Greece and Romania have more expensive gasoline than Serbia in the region.
The State of Serbia collects a substantial part of that amount, which is one of the largest amounts excise. They went up again in February 2026, so the excise duty on unleaded gasoline is 72 dinars per liter, gas oils 74,04 dinars, and LPG 56,23 dinars per kilogram.
Milojko Arsić, professor at the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade he told N1 that the consequences of the war in Iran will be economically negative for Serbia.
"The consequences will be negative and they will have the most direct impact on oil price growth. However, the level of that impact will depend on how long the conflict will be, whether it will end relatively quickly or if it will last for several weeks or months," said Arsić.
In Serbia, the controlled market of oil derivatives has been in force for years, which means that the state publishes maximum amounts of gasoline and fuel once a week, and pumps are not allowed to offer it at higher amounts. However, on the ground, this means that the market is not protected from side impacts, because the increase in fuel prices in the world - spills over simply by the government's decision to increase the maximum prices at the pumps.
Although Iran accounts for only three to four percent of global oil production, its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, considered the world's most critical point for oil transportation, prompts analysts to forecast a spike in oil prices.
A long-term closure or interruption of traffic through the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil consumption is transported, could cause the prices of that energy to cross the psychological threshold of $100 per barrel. This would threaten the global economy, but also raise prices - which are already difficult to contain.
Oil traders hope that the current disruptions in the oil market due to the shock will be relatively short, writes CNN. Nevertheless, the economic journalist of this media writes that considerable uncertainty remains about the scope and time frame of the war, which US President Donald Trump has suggested could last for weeks.
"Large-scale unrest, a chaotic power vacuum, strikes that shut down oil production or a prolonged shutdown of a critical oil delivery channel could eventually push oil prices to $100 a barrel or even higher, industry analysts warn," CNN added. "If that happens, and the market is currently hoping that scenario doesn't happen - gasoline prices could see a huge rally."
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