Interannual inflation in the country is almost two percent higher than the National Bank of Serbia expected, and GDP growth will not be as they had hoped.
Jorgovanka Tabaković excuses herself by increasing the price of fruit, whose prices in July had a year-on-year growth of 36 percent. It turns out that the reason for the price increase and inflation is a force majeure. Because the skyrocketing fruit prices were caused by the sun during the winter, frost in the spring and drought at the beginning of the summer, which made the yields of fruit significantly lower and therefore more expensive.
However, only half a percent went to expensive strawberries and even more peppery cherries. Tabaković only subsequently mentions that higher inflation occurred due to the rise in prices of all foodstuffs, as well as the rise in energy prices.
Thus, in the meantime, the price of electricity for households rose by around eight percent in November 2024, while gas went up by ten percent. And for companies, the price of electricity in the first half of 2025 increased by about 12 percent, which greatly influenced the growth of food prices in the country, and then the interannual inflation.
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Tabaković stated that as a result of the blockades in Serbia, investment and consumer confidence has decreased, so the new projection of the NBS is that the growth of Serbia's GDP this year will be 3,5 percent instead of 2,75 percent, as previously predicted.
GDP growth in the first and second quarters of this year was two percent. Regardless of such a small GDP growth, the NBS is again optimistic - growth of between four and five percent is expected for the next two years.
"In the second half of the year, we still expect an acceleration of economic activity, which should be contributed by the continued growth of production and exports of the automotive industry, as well as the implementation of infrastructure projects planned by the Leap into the Future - Serbia Expo 2027 program," said Tabaković.
It is also positive when it gives new forecasts for inflation.
"Inflation will gradually slow down in the coming year and will average four percent, and at the end of 2026 it will approach the central value of the target. Factors that will affect the expected slowdown of inflation during the projection horizon are still restrictive monetary conditions, a high base for food prices, primarily fruits and vegetables, lower import inflation and the weakening of the dollar against the euro," she said.
