The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, accuses the students of collapsing the Serbian economy with their protests. The balance of payments, however, does not deviate from the multi-year average
Student blockades and protests have been going on since the end of November, and according to the statements of the authorities and especially the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, they have harmed the country, "ruined the economy", especially investments and tourism. Those statements, however, do not agree with the data, writes Aleksandra Nenadović in New Economy.
According to the balance of payments published by Nardona Bank of Serbia last week, the inflow of foreign direct investments in January did not deviate from the multi-year average, while overnight stays by foreign tourists grew by 18,6 percent.
President Aleksandar Vučić's statement at the end of January that for the first time, in the first three weeks, as far as we can measure in January, we have a decrease in the number of foreign direct investments (FDI) compared to January last year and January 2023, is only partially correct.
The new economy has already written about the fact that the inflow of FDI was a record last year, so the January inflow of the same year was at a high level of 604 million euros. When looking at the year 2023, the inflow in that month was 188 million euros, in 2022 that figure was 199 million euros, in 2021 it was 266 million euros, and in January of this year it was 224 million euros. This means, as analysts also agree, that the January inflow of FDI this year was at the multi-year average.
There are not fewer, but more tourists
And one of the last statements in the series was related to the cancellation of visits by foreign tourists. Three days ago, the director of the National Association of Tourist Agencies of Serbia, Aleksandar Seničić, said that recently 28 percent of foreign tourists canceled their reservations in Serbia.
He stated that the unstable political situation and mass protests in all major cities will primarily affect salaries in the tourism sector. He also said that school trips and excursions are being cancelled.
But again, according to the data of the Republic Institute of Statistics, in January 2025, compared to January 2024, the number of tourist arrivals in Serbia increased by 16,1 percent, while the number of overnight stays increased by 16,7 percent.
In the same period, the number of overnight stays by domestic tourists increased by 15,1 percent, and the number of overnight stays by foreign tourists increased by 18,6 percent.
The reason for the cancellation of student trips lies in the fact that for years parents throughout Serbia have been protesting because of the prices imposed on them, which are too high for average Serbian salaries.
Some other factors
According to economists, the decrease in the forecast of Serbia's gross domestic product is not due to the student protest, but rather some other factors play a more important role.
Erste Group analysts see the slowdown in growth as a consequence of the expected slowdown in domestic demand, mainly investments, while the external component is still under pressure from the slow recovery of key trade partners within the Eurozone.
Professor Đorđe Đukić says that our economy will go down because it is not seen that the German automobile industry will find a quick way out, and another factor is the price of energy.
Economists agree that if the situation persists, there may be major shifts towards worse results, and some expect a political resolution that will return economic activities to full swing.
Source: Nova Ekonomija
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