In the complicated and politically orchestrated energy game surrounding the Oil Industry of Serbia - the chair has been drawn for Viktor Orban.
Since he lost power in the most important elections in Hungary in the last two decades, Orbán is no longer a decisive figure in the internal, but not entirely specific, foreign policy of this country. Because Orban is led Hungary in an extremely autocratic and "unsportsmanlike" manner as a member of the EU whose closest partners are Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump - both political and economic opponents of a united Europe.
It was this trio, Orban, Putin and Trump, that formed the basis for the deal by which the Hungarian state oil company MOL was supposed to buy the Russian-Serbian NIS. Therefore, it is not surprising that among the energy bazaar it was often mentioned that the sale of NIS is waiting for the parliamentary elections in Hungary to pass.
"I believe that the deal will not completely fail, because this purchase is still an opportunity for MOL to become the leading energy company in this part of Europe," Nebojša Atanacković, former director of JSC Nafta, told Vreme. "This is their opportunity to determine the prices in the region for a small amount. However, politics often has completely different rules than the economy. The Russian and American favorite lost in the elections, the question is whether the new Hungarian government will receive the same privileges from these two countries."
It is uncertain whether, adds Atanacković, Russia will now provide the new Hungarian government with the opportunity to buy Russian oil without problems and at a special price. Budapest's willingness to help with NIS and not disrupt Russian plans will probably depend on that.
Diplomat Srećko Đukić tells Vreme that Russia, on the other hand, will not allow the sale without certain guarantees that the company will return to them when the American sanctions are no longer in effect.
What will Peter Magyar do?
Although energy experts from Serbia generally do not like to comment on political events, the majority of those with whom "Vreme" spoke agree that energy experts are currently "chained" to international politics, willy-nilly.
It is very important how the future Prime Minister Peter Magyar will position himself now, because Hungary is still dependent on Russian energy sources. It is indicative, say "Vremena" sources, that some tabloids in Hungary, just a few weeks before the election, started writing about how the new government, if the Hungarian wins, will make a coup in MOL, which is normally run by people with close ties to Russia. Probably to scare voters with the energy crisis.
In January of this year, Peter Magjar himself hired Istvan Kapitani, a former manager of Shell, as an economic adviser before the April elections, because he was aware of the extent to which energy is woven into the politics of this country.
In October 2025, he commented in principle on his attitude towards energy cooperation with Russia. At the time, he said that there would be no quick withdrawal from the import of Russian fossil fuels if he won the elections - but that he would in the long run.
"We don't want to get rid of (Russian energy sources) tomorrow, but by the target date of 2035," the Hungarian said in an interview with Hungarian service Radio Svoboda. "It doesn't mean we won't buy from (Russia), it means we will find the cheapest and safest (sources). If there is an energy crisis, there should be more ways to meet Hungary's energy needs."
That is why Hungarian energy experts called this change more "evolutionary" than "revolutionary".
It should be taken into account that the Hungarian economy is in decline and that the new government will probably have to stabilize the economy first, and the question is how much money it will have for large investments, however profitable they may be in the long term on paper. Because NIS is now being sold cheaply, but the Russians could ask for it back after they are no longer burdened by American sanctions. That certainly does not pay off financially for Hungary. Especially since the Hungarian promised a better life for the common man in his economic program.
Photo: AP Photo/Denes ErdosPeter Magjar in the pre-election campaign
An important defeat for the entire trio.
It rarely happens that the vice president of the USA goes to another country before the election itself, as JD Vance has now gone to Hungary as a sign of support for Viktor Orbán in his election campaign. Trump himself promised riches for Hungarians if they supported his plan. Russia, on the other hand, according to the claims of independent media, directly interfered in the dirty campaign against Orban's opposition.
That's why one of the most important questions now, Nebojša Atanacković thinks, is whether the Russians now want to sell the company to Hungary like this and how much they trust the new "management".
"I am not sure that Russia will blindly trust the new government of Hungary, even though the Hungarians have not completely closed the door to them," says diplomat Srećko Đukić. He says for "Vreme" that the Russian moves in the campaign clearly showed who they actually agreed to cooperate with.
Djukic says that Russia will never enter into a deal and hand over his company unless they receive clear guarantees that it will be "safe until the situation regarding the sanctions changes."
"As much as NIS is a company that operates in Serbia and the Serbian state has part of the ownership, it is about Russian acquisitions, and they have made it clear that they do not want Serbia to run it either. They will certainly not allow that to someone they do not trust," he adds.
Viktor Orban has been defeated, let Aleksandar Vučić get ready
Decline
While the fate of NIS is burdened by high politics, this company is failing. The oil industry of Serbia ended the year 2025 with a net loss of 12,2 billion dinars, as can be seen from the company's latest financial report. This is double the loss reported by the company at the beginning of February 2026. The company is at a constant loss, and because it has been impossible to pay by card at NIS pumps for months, many consumers are now bypassing them permanently.
Although many experts, at the beginning of the NIS crisis, suggested that the company be declared bankrupt or that Serbia take it over, this did not happen, again due to politics and Russian disapproval.
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