Energy expert Željko Marković said that if the American sanctions against Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), visible consequences and shortages fuel it won't be as long as the existing supplies last, but he estimated that there will be a series of big problems if such a situation lasts.
"For the first month, two or three, there are state reserves, so there will not be an immediate shortage of fuel in the supply chain. However, if it lasts, there will be a shortage that can raise the price of fuel," Marković told the FoNet agency.
He added that fuel shortages can also affect various economic and industrial branches - from transport to agriculture.
According to him, difficulties in the financial operations of NIS are also possible, because it is assumed that the banks will not want to risk sanctions being imposed on them because of this cooperation.
Marković also sees a problem with the supply of crude oil to the Refinery in Pancevo, because the Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf) will stop it, and that is the only route by which crude oil is now being supplied.
Possible GDP decline and inflation
He pointed out that American sanctions on NIS could also affect the decline of gross domestic product and inflation.
"There may be a deficit in the budget, because NIS significantly fills the state budget. Social problems may also follow, as employees will not be able to receive a salary, and layoffs will follow," said Marković.
He does not rule out the possibility that the postponement of the deadline for the application of sanctions by only four days is, of course, the desire of the US administration to "demonstrate seriousness".
"Perhaps they think that now NIS will be ready to take a more concrete step, so far they have only practically repackaged the ownership within their group and based on that they obtained these sanctions delays. Perhaps now some concrete step will follow in the form of the introduction of a strategic partner, and perhaps the state can also buy a package of shares," said Marković.
He added that there are a number of possible solutions and that they can be worked on even if the sanctions are officially introduced on October 1.
Source: FoNet
