Minister of Finance Sinish Mali he assessed that the decision on US sanctions according to Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) "is not good news" and announced that the state will do "everything to preserve the energy stability of the country".
Mali emphasized that the state will not allow anyone to "play with Serbia's energy stability".
"All the time we try to be, as Vučić would say, under the radar. We are a small, libertarian and sovereign country and we want the conflicts of the great powers to bypass us, but unfortunately, that is not happening," said Mali, according to Juronujz.
He added that "sanctions start on October 1", if, as he stated, "some miracle does not happen".
"Serbia tried everything - they talked to the American and Russian side, put forward proposals and sought solutions, but it is not up to us because the country is small and cannot set conditions," Mali said.
"I can guarantee the citizens that we will do our best to solve the problem, as we did in 2022 when there were concerns about gas and electricity supply," said Mali.
On Thursday, Serbian President Aelksandar Vučić announced that sanctions against NIS will be introduced from October 1.
The full implementation of sanctions against the NIS was previously postponed on six occasions.
Change in the ownership structure of NIS
Previously, the ownership structure of NIS was changed, so instead of Gazprom, which is under US sanctions, Joint Stock Company "Intelligence" from St. Petersburg became the owner of 11,3 percent of NIS shares.
Miodrag Kapor, an expert in energy policy, estimated that at the time, for "Vreme", that change was made for the sake of form, and that the US sanctions were still "over the head" of NIS.
Kapor told "Vreme" that the change in the ownership structure followed in the hope that it would increase the chances that the US sanctions on NIS would not only be postponed, but also that NIS would potentially be removed from the list of US sanctions.
He pointed out that the second intention, i.e. the potential removal of NIS from the US sanctions list, is very difficult to achieve, as it requires the approval of the US Congress.
"I don't see anything else in this change in the ownership structure other than an attempt to show that something is being done, while in essence nothing is being done. It was primarily done to increase the chances of the NIS sanctions being postponed for a longer period than the 'honeymoon', as was the case last time. The 'Intelligence' firm is clearly connected to the official Kremlin, although on paper it is a joint-stock company," Kapor said.
Since nothing fundamentally changes, Kapor warned that Washington's sanctions against the NIS are an option, even though the Trump administration is "benevolent to the Kremlin" compared to the Biden administration.
Major market disruption in case of sanctions
"Any uncertainty, and those sanctions hanging over the head of NIS are uncertainty, prevents the optimal operation of the company. If full sanctions were introduced, the state would have to react or there would be a major disruption in the domestic oil derivatives market, and prices would very quickly jump by about 30 percent," Kapor said.
Kapor explains the approximate 30 percent increase in the price of oil derivatives in the case of the introduction of sanctions on NIS by the way the price of oil derivatives is formed.
"Almost 60 percent of the price of oil derivatives at retail pumps is part of excise duty and taxes. The state still has the most influence on what the final price will be, not the price on the world derivative market. It is a huge income for the budget at a time when the state is operating in extraordinary economic circumstances due to protests, so I don't know how capable the state is to reduce excise duties and taxes at this moment," Kapor concluded.
