Funeral Ratko Mladić, held this week in Belgrade with the support of the state, raised a question in Brussels that requires an urgent answer: can a country aspire to EU membership and at the same time sent off the convicted war criminal as a hero? For many, that event showed that Serbia's accession process has not only stalled, but that it has largely lost its political momentum. writes DW.
"For too long, the EU has treated Serbia as a normal candidate country," Engjeljuše Morin from the European Council on Foreign Relations told DW, even though Belgrade continues to regress in the areas of democracy and the rule of law.
Naim Leo Beshiri from the Institute for European Affairs in Serbia adds: "During the last five years, the ruling majority in Serbia has not implemented anything that was promised in the reform agenda."
A candidate moving away from Europe
Both experts indicate that Belgrade refuses to join the EU sanctions against Russia. Democratic standards have deteriorated under nationalist President Aleksandar Vučić, while relations with Kosovo remain strained.
Although the United Nations court sentenced him to life imprisonment for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, Ratko Mladić was buried in Belgrade on Monday with military honors and the presence of government officials. President Vučić did not attend the funeral, but he facilitated and defended the public tribute.
Brussels reacted unusually harshly. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called those scenes shocking. The President of the European Council, Antonio Košta, condemned the glorification of war criminals. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos canceled her visit to Serbia.
Was the EU too lenient?
Both Morina and Beshiri, however, believe that this is not enough. They believe that Vučić was given too much room for maneuver for too long. In their view, he was treated as an indispensable partner who could ensure stability in the Western Balkans and keep Serbia tied to the West, despite not respecting basic European values.
Beshiri says that civil society in Serbia has been warning Brussels for years about attacks on media freedom, the rule of law and democratic institutions. However, he adds, the EU mostly turned a blind eye.
Economic relations show how strong the ties between the EU and Serbia are. The Union is Serbia's largest trade partner, investor and financial donor. On the political front, however, Serbia has developed a close partnership with Moscow.
That is why the continuation of relations with Serbia is often justified by the fear that greater pressure could bring that country even closer to Russia or China.
Strong economic ties, close relations with Moscow
Morina accepts that isolating Serbia would be dangerous, but believes that there are other possibilities between complacency and complete abandonment of relations. The EU should remain engaged in relations with the Serbian public, but also force Vučić to make clear political decisions, she believes.
Beshiri says that Russia and China could never replace the European market. In his opinion, Vučić is using both countries as a threat in order to dissuade Brussels from taking more decisive action.
Both researchers see a certain strategy behind the current approach: Vučić benefits from cooperation without implementing the necessary reforms. Brussels, on the other hand, can still claim that Serbia remains bound to the EU.
Limits of financial pressure
However, the EU did not remain completely inactive. She began to apply financial pressure. Further payments under the Western Balkans Growth Plan have been suspended due to concerns about the independence of the judiciary.
Beshiri doubts that this will change Vučić's calculation. A broad cut in financial aid could hit the population more than the political elite, he believes. Instead, it advocates targeted measures against those responsible for the country's democratic backsliding and abuse of its institutions.
Can elections bring change?
Extraordinary parliamentary elections on October 25 could put Vučić's model to the test. After 12 years as president, he now wants to remain the dominant political figure in Serbia by becoming the next prime minister.
Beshiri says that the political opposition in Serbia is still weak and that "it is extremely difficult to win democratically in undemocratic elections."
None of the two experts expect that a single election could restore Serbia's institutions or fundamentally change its relationship with the European Union.
Reconciliation still far away
Reconciliation in the region seems even more distant. According to Beširi, Serbia would first have to acknowledge its role in the wars of the 1990s and accept the established facts about the crimes committed. Instead, narratives that portray Serbs exclusively as victims are still deeply rooted in Serbian politics, education, and media.
"What has been happening lately is essentially the undoing of everything that has been built for so many years," emphasizes Morina.
She adds that such a development was not caused by the funeral of Ratko Mladić, but it only showed once again how far Serbia is currently from both regional reconciliation and membership in the European Union.
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