Almost half of the citizens (49 percent) believe that things in Serbia are moving in the wrong direction, while 41 percent believe that they are moving in the right direction, Portal Savremena Politika published the results public opinion research of the International Republican Institute (IRI). Those questions can also be interpreted as reformulated questions "are you for or against the fourteen-year government of the SNS".
The same survey reveals that an overwhelming majority of citizens are ready to go out on elections, and that those who have a positive attitude towards student fight mostly pro-European oriented.
"European Western Balkans" journalist and political scientist Aleksandar Ivković for "Vreme" says that those who are sincerely in favor of Serbia's membership in to the European Union, at the same time they must also be opponents of the government because they see it as the antithesis of European values.
Who is the most motivated to go to the polls?
To the question "If the elections were held on Sunday, how likely would you be to vote", 68 percent of the respondents of the IRI survey answered that they would "very likely" vote, and another 15 percent of them answered "probably".
Photo: Ognjen Stevanović/FoNetThe overwhelming majority of citizens are ready to go to the polls
And when asked if they support the student protests, which have been going on in the country since the fall of the railway station canopy in Novi Sad, 42 percent say yes, and 41 percent no, and that if students formed their own electoral list, 46 percent of citizens would consider voting for it, and 40 percent would not.
Ivković says that he expects a large turnout in the elections, the largest since the Serbian Progressive Party has been in power.
"Opponents of the government at the moment are more motivated to go to the polls than supporters of the government. A higher turnout suits those who want change, more than it suits the government. This is absolutely certain, because the government has so far managed to get the majority of its supporters to the elections. Now, if the opponents of the government were able to further motivate their potential supporters, the increased turnout would benefit them," he explains.
He adds that if the student movement were strongly determined towards the European Union, it would push away a part of the voters, and that the current non-determination of students makes sense in terms of election tactics.
Who is for the EU - an eternal question
According to the research, if a referendum on membership in the European Union were to be held, 46 percent of respondents would vote "for", 29 percent would vote "against", while the rest do not know or would not come out. Among those who support the student protests, 61 percent would vote for joining the EU, and 22 percent are against. Among those opposed, 34 percent would vote "for" and 36 percent "against."
"Almost all people in Serbia, who are the core of EU support, advocate for membership for some value reasons, because they want the values they see in the European Union — the rule of law, democracy, human rights and the like. It is difficult to estimate precisely, but let's say that between a quarter and a third of the citizens of Serbia belong to that group. I would say that in that group there is no one or very few who are representatives of the government," says Ivković.
Photo: AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, FileSupport for student protests largely coincides with support for Serbia's membership in the EU
Citizens were also asked which position is closest to them when it comes to the European integration process of Serbia. 17 percent of them said that "the Government is bringing Serbia closer to EU membership", 33 percent that "the Government does not want or is unable to bring us closer to the EU, and therefore Serbia is not progressing towards the EU" and 40 percent that "the EU does not want Serbia to become a member, and therefore Serbia is not progressing towards the EU".
However, Ivković says that he does not expect a distinctly pro-European program among students.
"The student movement occasionally flirts with nationalism, but they still don't go all out in that direction, so I don't even expect the program to be anti-European. It will try to reconcile people who are for and against the European Union. It will probably be quite vague in that sense, but it makes sense from the point of view of electoral tactics," he explains.
He adds that this does not mean that there is not a small number of people who are bothered by the fact that the student movement is not decidedly pro-European. He believes that these are voters who could potentially vote for other opposition lists that profile themselves as pro-European, but that there are not many such voters.
Corruption is a burning issue.
Photo: Tanjug/Miloš MilivojevićCorruption and the economy will be the dominant themes of the election campaign
Research by IRI shows that citizens in Serbia see corruption as the biggest problem facing the country.
This answer was received from 22 percent of respondents, while 9 percent opted for the option that it was "the government, ruling party, bad political situation." 8 percent see the economic situation as the biggest problem, and 5 percent see student protests.
38 percent of citizens believe that "the fight against corruption would contribute the most to the improvement of the economic situation", and 23 percent of them believe that the answer lies in increasing salaries and pensions.
When asked how they would describe the economic situation of their household, 7 percent of respondents answered "very good", 60 percent said "mostly good", 24 percent "mostly bad", and 7 percent "very bad".
The survey was conducted in May and June on a sample of 1502 respondents, 75 percent of respondents were interviewed by phone, and 25 percent online. You can view the entire research published on the Contemporary Politics portal at link.
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