More warning signs in recent times point to a serious and potential danger of collapse power grids in Croatia. More precisely, in that country, but also in the immediate environment, because we are talking about problems whose cause is in a wider infrastructural context. Among the leading indicators is the so-called blackout, i.e. system crash that happened last year. Its focal point was in Montenegro, and its effects were also felt in Croatia. Given the assumptions of that collapse, there are well-founded fears that it could happen again, perhaps as early as this year. Something similar, but certainly on a larger scale, happened with the power grid of Portugal and Spain, he reports Deutsche says.
From time to time, professional voices in Croatia could be heard admonishing in the public space, but without much echo. As a rule, they indicate the inadequate state of the network in relation to the modern variety of sources of electricity, i.e. long-term non-investment in that system. Some information, on the other hand, mentions a kind of fluctuation of renewable energy types, and that is why it is stated as a possibility that sudden changes in the intensity of work, for example, wind or solar power plants, put the system to the test. It can be added that the peak of electricity consumption in Croatia is now approaching, if air conditioners and the tourist season are taken into account.
Where is the weak point?
"There really is a real danger of a repeat of last year's scenario, given that the cause was overloading the network in conditions of maximum load," says Zdeslav Matić, a consultant for electric power and former assistant minister for energy at the Croatian Ministry of Economy. In his statement to DW, he described how last year, from the direction of Montenegro, the system in Croatia collapsed in a cascade, up to the level where the local network can handle the load. "Given the load on the Konjsko-Melina transmission line, I would assume that the collapse will stop around Rijeka, not Zadar."
"In general, if it happens again, the collapse will continue until a sufficiently good network has been built. Namely, for the last forty years, the development of the network has been neglected, and the load has increased. Renewable sources, which are often mentioned in that context, actually have little to do with that collapse. Also, the scenario we saw in Portugal and Spain is unlikely here, because our system, unlike the one on the Iberian Peninsula, is one of the most regionally connected in Europe. We have very strong ties with our neighbors, with a great inertia of the system," concludes Matić.
According to his opinion, Croatia is stable in relation to the Portuguese-Spanish scenario, but still extremely exposed in relation to what happened in Croatia and the neighborhood. "Even the neighbors have not developed adequate infrastructure, I am referring to Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Serbia. The cause of our problem is multifaceted. Back in the time of Economy Minister Tomislav Ćorić, at the request of the Croatian Association of Employers, network fees (fees for use and access to the system) were significantly reduced, which deprived HOPS and HEP-ODS (Croatian operators) of funds for more serious investment in network development," reminds Matić.
New power plants
At the same time, it was avoided to use money from several available and generous funds of the European Union - almost a billion euros for this very purpose. "And that's because, because of the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), it was not possible to steal that money, while theft of domestic money generally does not go to prison. There are few exceptions, for example, the replacement of a 50-year-old submarine cable towards Brac and Hvar, so that the cable would not accidentally burn out when the owner is on summer vacation in Jelsa," Zdeslav Matić told DW, obviously targeting Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and various scandals in Croatia. electricity company.
In addition to what has been said, in professional circles you can also hear about the unfavorable effect of market operations on the stability of the system. The sector of renewable resources is strongly growing due to incentives and interest of private entrepreneurs in this business with safe investment and quick return. In addition, electricity traffic between countries is also growing, while public electrical systems lag behind until the entire burden falls on the necks of users, citizens.
"Investors see an opportunity in renewable energy, and many new power plants are just around the corner," says Robert Pašičko, assistant professor at the Geotechnical Faculty of the University of Zagreb in Varaždin. "The state is looking forward and it's as if people who should be looking forward are actually looking back and crying for the good old days when everything was very predictable. The Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency (HERA) is years late in defining the price of connecting new power plants. And the existing power lines should be strengthened and new connections introduced with neighboring countries," continues Pašičko, pointing out for example that most of Croatia's newly installed energy is in Dalmatia, and an additional connection with Italy would help to stabilize that system. By the way, the countries surrounding Croatia that are not part of the EU have recently signed compliance with European standards, which will also help stability.
Leaving it to the market?
"In the past, reversible hydropower plants pumped water into the upper reserve overnight in order to use it during the day. Today, they store energy during the day, that is, when its price is almost zero, and sell it after nine o'clock in the evening, when the price rises to 200 to 300 euros per megawatt hour," Pašičko points out. And he adds: "We need more investments in large battery systems and reversible hydroelectric power plants. It is necessary to push more energy production at the place where it is consumed, such as roofs. And to develop energy communities that distribute energy to members without burdening the transmission network."
However, the secondary regulation market is just being established, which means that, if the system runs into problems, new energy is introduced in just a few seconds, and the system's inertia to changes is strengthened. "Then, it is also important to use new tools that enable precise forecasting of production or consumption. In short, the system is becoming more and more complex, and without new experts who improve in that area, new tools and new ways of thinking, it will be increasingly difficult to defend its stability," assesses Robert Pašičko. And in the end, he notes that "burying your head in the sand" and leaving the market to solve the matter is not an option.
